Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Can the US sustain its war in Iran?
Initial Strikes and Military Claims
On February 28, the U.S. initiated “Operation Epic Fury” in Iran, marking the start of a large-scale military campaign. In the subsequent week, thousands of strikes were conducted across the nation, utilizing over 20 distinct weapon systems across air, land, and sea. The first phase saw Iran’s supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, eliminated in a coordinated attack by U.S. and Israeli forces.
Despite the intensity of the strikes, U.S. officials remain confident in their ability to continue the operation. President Donald Trump asserted that the country has a “virtually unlimited” supply of armaments, while Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth emphasized that “stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as needed.” General Dan Caine, the Joint Chiefs of Staff Chair, echoed this sentiment, stating, “We have enough precision munitions to accomplish the mission, both for offensive and defensive purposes.”
Cost Efficiency Concerns
The financial implications of the conflict highlight potential challenges. Iran’s Shahed 136 drones, costing between $20,000 and $50,000 each, have been deployed in significant numbers against U.S. and allied targets. In contrast, fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles cost $450,000 per unit, with operational hours adding another $40,000. Kelly Grieco of the Stimson Center noted that “the cost of operating a fighter jet for an hour equals the price of a Shahed drone,” underscoring inefficiencies in the current strategy.
“The United States has tested [cheaper technologies], but hasn’t purchased them in enough quantities,” Grieco remarked.
While the U.S. has the capacity to endure for extended periods, the most critical concern lies in the high-grade weapons used for long-range defense. These include costly Patriot missiles, which are reserved for intercepting ballistic threats and can reach up to $3 million per unit. Mark Cancian from the Center for Strategic and International Studies pointed out that “stocks are being consumed quickly,” with estimates suggesting 200-300 Patriot missiles have already been used.
Stockpile Depletion and Production Plans
Lockheed Martin, a key supplier, only produced 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, raising questions about the pace of replenishment. Cancian explained, “If you asked the company for another Patriot today, it would take at least two years to deliver.” This delay highlights the strain on high-end missile inventories.
In response, Trump met with defense contractors on March 6, announcing that manufacturers had agreed to boost production of top-tier weaponry by fourfold. However, Grieco questioned the significance of the announcement, noting that “most of these deals had already been publicized in the preceding months.” The U.S. Central Command reported over 3,000 targets struck in the first seven days of the operation, with Iran retaliating with thousands of drones and hundreds of missiles.
Expert Perspectives
Analysts suggest that while the U.S. has ample resources for shorter-range munitions, the sustainability of the campaign depends on maintaining a steady supply of advanced systems. Cancian added, “For bombs, JDAM kits, and Hellfire missiles, the military could persist indefinitely, given the existing stockpiles.” Yet, the depletion of costly interceptors like the Patriot signals a growing concern about long-term capacity and resource allocation.