After 16 years in power, can Viktor Orban finally be unseated?
After 16 Years in Power, Can Viktor Orban Finally Be Unseated?
Viktor Orban, Hungary’s longest-serving leader, faced a moment of vulnerability as he delivered a fiery address at a mass rally in Györ on March 27. His vocal frustration revealed a shift from his typically composed demeanor, as he criticized opposition protesters who had denounced his party with chants of “Filthy Fidesz.”
The 12 April parliamentary election is drawing global attention, with opposition leader Peter Magyar’s Tisza party leading in recent polls by a significant margin—58% to Orban’s 35%. This has prompted the prime minister to intensify his campaign efforts, seeking to reclaim support from wavering voters. For the first time in 16 years, Fidesz faces a genuine challenge to its dominance.
Orban’s administration has long enjoyed backing from world leaders like Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, but its relationship with the EU has grown increasingly contentious. Criticized for undermining democratic norms, the government has also shown hesitation on Ukraine, positioning itself as a counter to the bloc’s liberal values. This stance has made Orban a symbol for Europe’s nationalist movements, both in power and on the verge of it.
A striking shift is emerging in public sentiment. While many across Europe have turned against established political elites due to corruption scandals, the same frustration now targets Orban. Younger voters, in particular, view his party as the source of widespread graft, citing allegations of state funds being funneled to associates. Projects such as bridges, stadiums, and motorways have become focal points of these accusations, with government allies amassing considerable wealth.
Among them, Istvan Tiborcz, Orban’s son-in-law, owns prominent hotels, while childhood friend Lörinc Meszaros, once a gas fitter, has risen to become the country’s richest individual. Despite these claims, Orban and his allies insist they are blameless, framing their actions as a strategic move to prioritize national interests over foreign influence.
The opposition, however, is leveraging these controversies to challenge Fidesz’s legacy. Political analyst Zoltan Kiszelly of the government-linked Szazadveg think tank argues that the current sense of crisis is engineered by the opposition to create a narrative of fraud should they lose. Meanwhile, Gabor Török, a respected figure in Hungary’s polarized political landscape, warns that the government’s image is under threat: “This is not the ‘calm strength’ or ‘strategic calm’ that Fidesz has projected for years.”
Recent weeks have seen a surge in anti-Orban sentiment, fueled by scandals and a dramatic Russian plan to stage a fabricated assassination attempt on him. Yet, the prime minister remains defiant, suggesting that external forces like Ukraine and its European allies are to blame for Hungary’s economic struggles. Can his ability to sway rural voters, the traditional backbone of Fidesz, prove decisive in this pivotal contest?
“This is not just an election. This is a referendum on that whole model of authoritarian rule that Orban represents,” said Michael Ignatieff, former rector of the Central European University, which was expelled from Budapest in 2019.