Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
Can stats help you find the Grand National winner?
The Grand National, held at Aintree, stands as a premier event in the British horse racing calendar. With 34 competitors vying for the title, selecting a winner often feels like a matter of chance. However, historical data might offer some clues. BBC Sport examines the numbers to predict the 2026 edition’s outcome.
The 2025 Grand National marked a notable moment, but the 2026 race will be the focus. Scheduled for Saturday, 11 April, at 16:00 BST, it will be broadcast on BBC Radio 5 Live and BBC Sounds, with live updates available on the BBC Sport website and app. 5 Sports Extra will cover Friday’s races from 14:00 to 16:15 BST.
Historical odds and weight trends
Since 2000, the race has been run 25 times, excluding 2020 due to the pandemic. Tiger Roll set the record for the shortest odds in 2019 at 4-1, becoming the first horse to achieve consecutive wins since Red Rum’s 1970s dominance. Conversely, Mon Mome’s 2009 triumph came at 100-1, while the 2025 winner, Nick Rockett, had odds of 33-1.
The century’s average winning odds have remained around 24-1, with eight champions priced at 33-1 or higher. Still, the average has dipped in the last decade, with the victor priced at 11-1 or better on five occasions. This suggests that while high odds are common, shorter odds can also prevail.
Age and experience factors
Recent years have seen a shift in age trends. Since 2014, no horse older than 10 has claimed victory. However, Noble Yeats broke this pattern in 2022 by winning as a seven-year-old, the first such instance since Bogskar in 1940. This trend indicates that horses aged eight or nine may hold an edge.
Among the past 10 winners, six were eight-year-olds and three were nine-year-olds. Notably, Tiger Roll, a nine-year-old, achieved victory again in 2019. While experience isn’t always crucial, the past 15 winners included only one with prior race experience, highlighting the race’s unpredictability.
Trainers and jockeys’ influence
Trainers like Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott have had success in recent years. Mullins trained the last two champions but hadn’t secured a win since Hedgehunter in 2005. His stable has still produced six top-five finishes in the past decade. Gordon Elliott, who previously trained Tiger Roll, has also seen four runners reach the podium in the last ten years.
Jockeys play a pivotal role too. Paul Townend, who claimed a top-five spot in 2024, has opted for I Am Maximus this year. Jack Kennedy, Mark Walsh, and Danny Mullins have each finished in the top five multiple times, underscoring their consistent presence in the race.
Official ratings and handicapping
Each horse is assigned an official rating by the handicapper, reflecting their performance level. Of the past 16 champions, 14 carried a rating of 146 or above, with 13 falling within 146 to 160. This pattern suggests that higher ratings often correlate with success, though exceptions exist.
“In short, no.”