Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
Can the US military sustain a long war in Iran?
On February 28, the United States initiated Operation Epic Fury, a campaign targeting Iran. In the following week, thousands of strikes were executed across the nation, utilizing over 20 weapon systems across multiple domains. US President Donald Trump asserted that the war could last four to five weeks, yet he emphasized the military’s capacity to extend its duration. “We’ve got no shortage of munitions,” stated Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth during a visit to US Central Command in Florida on March 5. “Our stockpiles of defensive and offensive weapons allow us to sustain this campaign as long as we need.”
General Dan Caine, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, echoed this confidence, claiming sufficient precision munitions for the task at hand. However, Trump’s assurances were tempered by a subtle acknowledgment of potential limitations. On March 2, he noted on Truth Social that while medium-grade munitions were “never been higher or better,” the highest-end stockpiles were “not where we want to be.” Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow at the Stimson Center, agreed with this distinction, highlighting that top-tier long-range missiles and interceptors face the most significant concerns. “There are real limitations on stockpiles there,” she said.
The conflict has seen a rapid exchange of firepower. In the first seven days, US Central Command reported over 3,000 targets struck in Iran. In response, Iran deployed thousands of Shahed-136 drones and hundreds of missiles at US sites. The cost dynamics of this arms race reveal a key challenge. Shahed drones, costing $20,000 to $50,000 each, have prompted the use of more expensive defenses. Fighter jets equipped with AIM-9 missiles cost $450,000 per launch, with hourly operational expenses reaching $40,000. “The cost of operating the fighter for an hour is equivalent to the cost of a Shahed,” Grieco observed. “It’s not efficient. It’s not a favorable cost exchange.”
High-grade weapons like the Patriot missile system, priced at around $3 million each, are critical for intercepting ballistic threats. Yet, Mark Cancian of the Center for Strategic and International Studies noted that stocks are depleting quickly. “At the beginning, I think there were about 1,000 Patriots,” he estimated. “We’ve chewed into that inventory quite a bit now.” He pointed out that 200–300 Patriot missiles had already been used. Production delays further complicate matters: Lockheed Martin delivered just 620 PAC-3 interceptors in 2025, with a lead time of at least two years for additional units.
Shorter-range weapons, such as bombs and Hellfire missiles, present a different scenario. Cancian suggested that these are more abundant, enabling prolonged military engagement. Still, the challenge lies in the balance between offensive power and defensive sustainability. Trump’s meeting with defense firms on March 6 included a commitment to quadruple production of top-tier weapons, though Grieco questioned the urgency. “I found that to be like a non-announcement,” she remarked. “Most of these had already been announced in the last months.”