Has US achieved its war objectives in Iran?
Has US achieved its war objectives in Iran?
The recent conflict between the US and Israel in Iran has sparked a debate over the effectiveness of military actions, centered within the Pentagon’s strategic framework. From the first press briefing to the latest update following a two-week truce, Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has delivered high-profile statements that emphasize American dominance. Known for his role in the Army National Guard and his Fox News background, Hegseth has framed the war in dramatic terms, claiming “a capital V military victory” and describing relentless aerial attacks as “death and destruction from the sky all day long.”
However, uncovering the true impact of the war on US forces and Iran’s strategic position requires more than surface-level analysis. While Trump’s core objective was to halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions, this goal had long been a focus of US-led diplomacy. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), brokered under Obama, was seen as insufficient by Trump, prompting his administration to shift from diplomatic engagement to military strikes. This pattern of alternating between negotiation and aggression has led to the current escalation, though tangible outcomes remain unclear.
Regime Change and Nuclear Deterrence
Trump’s stated aims extended beyond nuclear constraints to include regime change, a vision he outlined in a social media video from Mar-a-Lago. He called for Iranians to seize control of their government once the US-Israeli bombardment ceased. Yet, despite the targeting of key figures, including Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, his son Mojtaba was confirmed as his successor. This has not yielded the desired compliance, unlike the situation in Venezuela, where Trump’s actions reportedly toppled Maduro’s regime.
Trump’s top officials assert that the US has dismantled Iran’s conventional military assets, including missiles, launchers, drones, and naval capabilities. However, leaked intelligence suggests Iran still retains about half of its pre-war arsenal. The BBC has not confirmed these claims, leaving the actual damage to the country’s military infrastructure in question.
Costs and Unanswered Questions
As the fragile ceasefire holds, the war’s toll on both sides becomes increasingly evident. Thirteen US service members have lost their lives, while hundreds more have been injured. Munition supplies have been used rapidly, raising concerns about sustainability. Meanwhile, Iran’s nuclear program remains intact, with enriched uranium stockpiles still present in gas cylinders buried under rubble. This suggests that Trump’s claim of “obliterating” Iran’s nuclear capabilities may be overstated.
During the third week of the conflict, IAEA chief Rafael Grossi noted that a military solution to Iran’s nuclear ambitions might not be feasible. Trump, however, insists the US will collaborate with Iran to “dig up and remove all of the deeply buried… Nuclear Dust.” Yet, with a more skeptical leadership in place, Tehran may grow more resolute in its pursuit of nuclear deterrence, complicating future negotiations in Islamabad.
“We have scored a capital V military victory,”
Hegseth declared, underscoring the theatricality of his briefings. But as the war drags on, the question remains: what has the US truly accomplished, and at what cost?