White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets
White House staff told not to place bets on prediction markets
Following a recent directive, White House employees were advised against utilizing confidential data for financial wagers on forecasting platforms. The directive, issued on 24 March, came after U.S. President Donald Trump announced a temporary halt to his plans for targeting Iranian energy facilities. The warning addressed reports suggesting government officials might be placing bets on sites such as Kalshi or Polymarket using non-public information.
“Any suggestion that Administration members are involved in such actions without proof is unfounded and untrustworthy,” stated White House spokesperson Davis Ingle when speaking to the BBC.
The Wall Street Journal initially revealed the email, which highlighted that all federal workers are bound by ethical guidelines preventing the misuse of insider information for profit. Ingle further emphasized that President Trump’s decisions are driven by the public’s best interests.
Kalshi faced scrutiny in January when a bettor secured nearly half a million dollars on the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro just before the event was officially confirmed. The anonymous account, identified through a blockchain-based code, raised questions about whether the bettor had access to classified military details.
Prediction markets, now boasting over $44bn in traded value, have gained traction in recent years. These platforms allow users to wager on a wide array of topics, from sports events to economic policies and local elections. However, bets tied to geopolitical conflicts have sparked discussions about the need for tighter oversight.
Regulatory and legislative actions
This week, Democrat Congressman Ritchie Torres, a member of the House Financial Services Committee, requested an inquiry into “suspicious” trades. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which oversees derivatives markets, is responsible for such investigations. Earlier in March, Democratic leaders proposed legislation aiming to restrict betting on military-related events entirely.
“Corruption and exploitation are flourishing within the current gaps of prediction markets,” noted New Jersey Senator Andy Kim. “This manipulation allows a select group to gain significantly at the cost of working Americans,” he added.
The BBC has reached out to Kalshi and Polymarket for additional insights. While the exact source of the January bet remains unclear, the incident has intensified calls for transparency and accountability in the growing market for predictive wagers.