Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Bowen: Trump has called for an Iran uprising but the lessons from Iraq in 1991 loom large
Three decades ago, a U.S. president urged a rebellion and then hesitated to back it. The result was a pattern that echoes today. In February 1991, George H.W. Bush addressed workers at a Massachusetts factory producing Patriot missiles, which were newly deployed in the Gulf War. His speech, later regretted, promised a way to end conflict without direct military intervention. These interceptors, still vital in Ukraine and Iran, became symbols of a strategy that relied on the people’s own actions.
At the time, the coalition’s air campaign was already targeting Iraqi cities, while ground troops gathered near Kuwait’s borders. I was in Baghdad, covering the war, when the U.S. airstrike on Amiriyah claimed over 400 civilian lives. The Americans and British claimed it had hit a command center, but the bodies—mostly children, women, and elderly—and the smoldering shelter told a different story. I hadn’t noticed Bush’s speech then, but 35 years later, it haunts me whenever I hear Trump and Netanyahu urging Iranians to rise against their regime.
A Speech That Shaped a Crisis
Bush’s words carried weight. “There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop… and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands,” he declared. The crowd roared with approval, yet the president’s message left Iraqis with a false sense of hope. When the war ended, the ceasefire allowed Saddam Hussein to retain power. His forces then crushed uprisings in the south and north, killing thousands.
“There’s another way for the bloodshed to stop… and that is for the Iraqi military and the Iraqi people to take matters into their own hands and force Saddam Hussein, the dictator, to step aside…”
As I later witnessed in the Kurdish north, the toll was devastating. Families brought the remains of their children, wrapped in blankets, from frozen mountain slopes. The U.S. and its allies eventually launched a rescue mission, but the Shia south faced no such salvation. The aftermath of that war sowed the seeds for future conflicts, including the rise of Al Qaeda, which Osama bin Laden began organizing in Saudi Arabia.
Fast forward to 2003, when the second Bush administration removed Saddam Hussein, completing what his father had started. Iran emerged as a regional power, a victory the U.S. had inadvertently helped. Now, the current conflict seeks to reverse that progress, targeting Iran’s military and nuclear goals. Israel, in particular, views these ambitions as existential threats. Yet, history warns that calling for rebellion without follow-through can lead to tragic outcomes, as seen in the 1991 war’s aftermath.
Trump’s recent call for an Iran uprising mirrors Bush’s 1991 strategy. If the U.S. withdraws support, the risk of a failed revolt—and its bloody consequences—remains. The echoes of past mistakes are clear: without intervention, the people’s courage may be crushed under the weight of tyranny.