Lebanon enters talks with Israel but with no cards to play
Lebanon begins dialogue with Israel, yet lacks decisive leverage
In the midst of renewed conflict, Lebanon has initiated discussions with Israel. However, the government finds itself with limited options to influence the outcome. The talks come amid ongoing tensions, with Israeli strikes continuing to target Hezbollah-linked individuals and locations across the nation.
The recent engagement with President Joseph Aoun took place in August at the Baabda Palace, a modernist structure atop a hill near Beirut. Aoun, a former army commander, assumed office following a war between Israel and Hezbollah, a militia backed by Iran. Despite Hezbollah’s weakened state post-conflict, Aoun pledged to dismantle its arms, a goal that has long been contested within Lebanon.
Aoun’s optimism and cautious approach
“I was born an optimist,” he remarked during our meeting. Yet, the president admits his challenges in achieving lasting peace.
A fragile ceasefire, established in November 2024, has been repeatedly tested. Israel’s daily attacks on Hezbollah targets persist, while some regions remain under continuous conflict. From the author’s residence in eastern Beirut, the whir of Israeli drones overhead serves as a constant reminder of the violence.
Hezbollah, known as the Party of God in Arabic, has long been a central force in Lebanese politics. Its supporters view it as a bulwark against Israeli expansion, while critics argue it prioritizes Iranian interests, dragging Lebanon into wars it does not desire. The group’s defiance was evident in February when it launched rockets into Israel following the killing of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader.
Historical roots of Hezbollah’s power
Founded in the 1980s during Israel’s occupation of Lebanon, Hezbollah emerged as a resistance movement. It has since been financially, militarily, and ideologically supported by Iran, with the destruction of Israel among its stated objectives. The 1989 Taif Agreement aimed to end Lebanon’s civil war by disarming all militias and establishing sectarian power-sharing. Hezbollah, however, retained its arsenal by framing itself as a defender against foreign occupation.
Israel’s withdrawal from southern Lebanon in 2000 did not resolve territorial disputes. The UN Resolution 1701, passed in 2006, demanded Hezbollah’s disarmament but remains unimplemented. Despite being labeled a terrorist organization by the UK and the US, Hezbollah operates as a political party with parliamentary representation and a social network that provides essential services in underdeveloped regions.
President Aoun’s administration has championed the “state monopoly on arms” policy, seeking to centralize control over weapons. Yet, Hezbollah’s stronghold in Dahieh, Beirut’s southern suburbs, and the eastern Bekaa Valley complicates this effort. Secretary-General Naim Qassem has resisted broader disarmament, leaving Aoun to ponder the risks of unilateral action. “We can’t let the country descend into another civil war,” he warned during our August conversation, underscoring the fragile balance between diplomacy and force.