Trump isn’t on the ballot in Georgia, but he could decide Tuesday’s races
Trump’s Influence in Georgia’s Political Landscape
Trump isn t on the ballot – Though Donald Trump did not appear in person at the Atlanta Press Club Republican Senate primary debate last month, his shadow loomed large over the event. U.S. Representative Buddy Carter, a candidate in the race, opened his remarks by declaring his intent to “go to the Senate and be a warrior for Donald Trump and his ‘America First’ policies.” This statement underscored the central role Trump plays in the ambitions of Georgia’s Republican hopefuls, even in the absence of a direct appearance. Similarly, U.S. Representative Mike Collins, Carter’s House counterpart and Senate primary rival, echoed this sentiment when asked about the party’s future without Trump at the helm. “We need to continue Donald Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda,” Collins told the moderator, adding that “it’s one of the reasons I ran.”
As the midterm cycle progresses, Trump’s political clout has become a defining force in shaping outcomes across the nation. His endorsements have historically been a game-changer, dismantling long-standing incumbents, lifting underdog candidates from packed special elections, and intensifying internal party competition. Yet, in the Georgia Senate race, Trump has not yet thrown his support behind a candidate. This absence has shifted the focus of both Carter and Collins to the heart of Trump’s base, with each strategist attempting to align their platform with the former president’s vision. The primary on May 19, 2026, is expected to be a battleground for Trump’s legacy, as his backing could tilt the balance of power in Congress.
The Senate Race and Democratic Vulnerability
Incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff faces a formidable challenge in securing re-election, with Tuesday’s primary potentially setting the stage for a decisive showdown. Ossoff, a rising figure in the Democratic Party, has become a target for Republican candidates eager to reclaim the Senate seat. The outcome of this race will not only determine Georgia’s representation in the Senate but also reflect the broader political dynamics at play in the 2026 midterm elections. For Carter and Collins, the race is more than a contest for a Senate seat—it’s a test of their ability to harness Trump’s brand and appeal to voters who remain loyal to his policies.
Brian Kemp, Georgia’s two-term governor and a key political player, has chosen to back neither Carter nor Collins. Instead, Kemp is endorsing Derek Dooley, a former college football coach whose campaign has positioned him as a “political outsider.” This decision has drawn attention to Kemp’s strategic role in the state, as his support could sway the primary’s direction. Kemp’s PAC, Hardworking Americans Inc., has already invested millions in Dooley’s bid, aiming to bolster his chances against the established GOP figures. However, Kemp’s backing does not guarantee victory, given the intense competition and the potential for Trump’s influence to override traditional party dynamics.
Despite Kemp’s absence from the Senate race, his presence in the governor’s race adds another layer of complexity. Trump’s endorsement of current Lt. Governor Burt Jones failed to secure a clear path to victory, leaving the field open for a spirited contest between Jones and billionaire businessman Rick Jackson. Polls show Jackson and Jones are currently tied, with the former leveraging Trump’s “Make America Great Again” messaging to attract support. This mirrors the broader trend in Georgia, where candidates are aligning themselves with Trump’s rhetoric to gain traction, even in the absence of a direct endorsement.
Trump’s Endorsement Power and Its Limits
Trump’s ability to sway elections has been evident in other states, where his backing has often been decisive. For instance, in Indiana, Trump-endorsed candidates have succeeded in toppling several GOP senators who opposed his redistricting strategies. This pattern suggests that Trump’s influence extends beyond his own base, creating a ripple effect across the party. However, in Georgia, the situation is different. The state’s political landscape is shaped by its own unique dynamics, including Kemp’s strong appeal to voters and the deep-rooted support for “America First” principles among Georgians.
Kemp, despite his past disagreements with Trump over election fraud claims in the 2020 presidential race, remains a popular figure in the state. His 2022 reelection victory over a Trump-backed primary challenger demonstrated his ability to mobilize the GOP base independently. This has led some to question whether Kemp’s support for Dooley in the governor’s race is a sign of his growing influence or a strategic move to ensure a favorable successor. Regardless, the May 19 primary will serve as a crucial indicator of Kemp’s political power and his readiness to take on a broader role in the state’s governance.
The Georgia primary is not just about the immediate contest for Senate or governor—it’s a reflection of the larger battle for control of the Republican Party. Trump’s endorsement power, while significant, has not yet fully translated into a unified front for the Senate race. Instead, the primary highlights a fractured GOP field, with candidates vying to claim the mantle of the party’s most influential figure. This fragmentation could have lasting consequences, as the winner of the Senate race may shape the direction of the party’s platform and priorities in the coming years.
Political Outsiders and the Road to the White House
Dooley’s campaign, which emphasizes his status as a political outsider, aligns with Trump’s appeal to voters tired of traditional politics. By backing Dooley, Kemp is positioning himself as a forward-thinking leader who can bridge the gap between the party’s established figures and its grassroots supporters. This strategy could pay dividends if Dooley’s candidacy resonates with a broader segment of the electorate, including those who may feel disillusioned with the current GOP establishment. However, the challenge lies in translating this momentum into a successful gubernatorial campaign, especially in a state where Trump’s influence is both revered and contested.
The governor’s race also offers a glimpse into the potential future of the Republican Party. If Trump’s early endorsement of Jones fails to secure the nomination, it may signal a shift in the party’s leadership structure. Jackson, with his financial resources and Trump-aligned messaging, represents a new kind of candidate—someone who blends business acumen with a strong focus on conservative values. This could foreshadow a trend where candidates leverage Trump’s brand to appeal to voters, even in the absence of his direct involvement. However, the success of this approach will depend on the strength of the candidate’s own platform and their ability to connect with Georgians on a personal level.
As the May 19 primary approaches, the stakes for all involved are high. For the Senate race, the outcome will determine who challenges Ossoff in November, while for the governor’s race, it will shape the future of state leadership. Trump’s absence from the ballot in Georgia does not diminish his impact, as his influence continues to ripple through the state’s political arena. Whether through his policies, his rhetoric, or his endorsement of candidates, Trump remains a central figure in the race for power, even in the absence of a direct role in the current elections.
The Georgia primary serves as a microcosm of the national political battle, where Trump’s legacy and influence will be tested. While Kemp’s support for Dooley and the lack of a clear Trump endorsement in the Senate race highlight the state’s political complexity, the broader implications of these contests cannot be ignored. The results may not only define Georgia’s future but also signal the trajectory of the Republican Party as it navigates a changing political landscape. For now, the focus remains on May 19, as voters decide who will represent their state in the upcoming battles for power.