Iran war: Turkey caught between a rock and a hard place
Iran War: Turkey Caught Between a Rock and a Hard Place
Turkey’s anxiety has been mounting as the conflict intensifies between Iran, the US, and Israel. The capital fears that the escalating hostilities might unravel stability in the region. Historically, Turkey has served as a key link between Europe and the Middle East, both in terms of geography and diplomacy. As tensions flared between Washington and Tehran, Ankara first sought to act as a mediator, cautioning that “starting the war again would be a mistake.”
Neutrality and Diplomatic Outreach
Turkey’s Foreign Minister, Hakan Fidan, emphasized the need for resolving the nuclear issue with Iran before addressing other disputes. In an interview with Al Jazeera in late January, he stated:
“Iran is ready to negotiate on the nuclear file again. My advice to American allies is to close the files one by one, beginning with the nuclear matter.”
Despite these efforts, Ankara’s diplomatic signals have not yet yielded significant responses from the warring parties.
Border Concerns and Economic Risks
The 530-kilometer border shared with Iran is a focal point for Turkish apprehensions. It stretches across areas with a significant Kurdish population, raising fears of regional unrest. Ankara worries that the conflict could strain the economy, pushing inflation higher, disrupting energy supplies, and dampening tourism. Additionally, the government is wary of political upheaval in the Middle East, particularly a resurgence of Kurdish militant activity.
Missile Threats and NATO’s Response
In recent days, two Iranian missiles were intercepted near Turkish territory. The first was downed over the Mediterranean on March 4 as it targeted Turkish airspace, with officials suggesting it may have veered off course toward Cyprus. A second missile entered Turkish airspace before being stopped above Gaziantep. In response, the defense ministry announced plans to deploy a Patriot system near the Kurecik NATO radar station.
Dilemma of Kurdish Support
Turkey maintains that the PKK is defeated and the YPG is weakened, yet it remains cautious about arming Iranian Kurdish groups. Such support could shift regional power dynamics, potentially undermining Turkey’s peace process with the PKK. The government’s “terror-free Turkey” initiative hinges on keeping Kurdish factions in check. With memories of 2015’s refugee crisis fresh, Ankara is reluctant to see another influx of Iranians seeking refuge.
Analysts note Turkey’s strategic balancing act. While it seeks to remain neutral, the survival of Tehran’s regime or its collapse could each bring new challenges. The country’s NATO bases, including Incirlik Air Base, are critical to its alliances, but they also expose it to potential missile threats. As the war continues, Ankara’s role as a mediator remains uncertain, with its efforts seen as both a current compromise and a future investment in regional influence.